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Men's Coxless Four (M4-)

Pre-Race Analysis and Prediction

Semi-Final Heat 1

The top 3 crews advance to the FA final, the others to the FB final.

Prediction

GBR, the 1997, 1998 and 1999 World Champions, are faster in each 500 meter interval than each of its opponents in this semi-final. GBR should lead wire-to-wire and win this race. GBR should gain steadily on the competition all the way down the course. This will set the stage for an FA final in which GBR's Steve Redgrave will try to set Olympic history with a gold medal in 5 straight Olympic Games dating back to Los Angeles in 1984. The race for the 2nd and 3rd place finishes will be where the real excitement is in this race. If SLO, USA and FRA repeat their relative performances in the preliminary heats, the 3 of them will be almost even with 500 meters to go, but only two of them will make the FA final. The last 500 meters should be wild. Look for the USA to make its initial move up on SLO and FRA in the 3rd 500 and pass FRA for 2nd place before the 1500. The USA may then pass SLO in the last 500 for 2nd place and a favored lane in the FA final. FRA needs to bear down in the 3rd 500 to match USA's expected move. SLO also has to watch out for both USA and FRA in the last 500, as each showed a faster last split than SLO. Stay tuned.

LANE CREW RELATIVE POSITIONS                      ELAPSED   SPLIT  
                            1500*           CREW   TIME     TIME   
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+  
  6  ROM       <ROM                          GBR  1:27.26  1:27.26
  5  SLO    <SLO                             FRA  1:28.56  1:28.56
  4  GBR <GBR                                SLO  1:28.62  1:28.62
  3  FRA   <FRA                              USA  1:29.58  1:29.58
  2  USA     <USA                            GER  1:30.19  1:30.19
  1  GER      <GER                           ROM  1:30.52  1:30.52
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
                            1000*
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
  6  ROM           <ROM                      GBR  2:59.25  1:31.98
  5  SLO      <SLO                           SLO  3:02.00  1:33.37
  4  GBR <GBR                                FRA  3:02.47  1:33.90
  3  FRA       <FRA                          USA  3:03.66  1:34.08
  2  USA         <USA                        ROM  3:05.08  1:34.56
  1  GER            <GER                     GER  3:05.83  1:35.63
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
                            500 *
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
  6  ROM               <ROM                  GBR  4:30.94  1:31.69
  5  SLO        <SLO                         SLO  4:34.66  1:32.66
  4  GBR <GBR                                USA  4:35.63  1:31.96
  3  FRA          <FRA                       FRA  4:36.33  1:33.85
  2  USA         <USA                        ROM  4:38.83  1:33.74
  1  GER                    <GER             GER  4:41.79  1:35.96
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
                          FINISH*
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
  6  ROM                      <RO            GBR  6:01.57  1:30.63
  5  SLO            <SLO                     USA  6:07.35  1:31.72
  4  GBR <GBR                                SLO  6:07.89  1:33.23
  3  FRA             <FRA                    FRA  6:08.57  1:32.23
  2  USA           <USA                      GER  6:13.60  1:31.80
  1  GER                      <GE            ROM  6:14.00  1:35.16
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+

Prediction 509

Copyright 2000. Kent Mitchell.

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