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Men's Coxless Four (M4-)

Pre-Race Analysis and Prediction

Semi-Final A/B Heat 2

The top 3 crews advance to the FA final, the others to the FB final.

Prediction

Two separate races should develop here during the 2nd 500 meter interval. One will be between ITA and AUS for 1st and 2nd place (nod goes to ITA, winner at Lucerne World Cup in July over AUS). The other race will be between YUG, NOR and NZL, all trying for 3rd place to move on with ITA and AUS to the FA final. These 3 crews should be about even with 500 meters to go. Only 1 of them will make the FA final. Expet YUG to fall off early in the last 500, and for the 3rd qualifying place to come down to NZL and NOR. Comparative heat times give a slight edge to NOR, but NZL will be moving up and has beaten NOR consistently in World Cup, so despite the time indications, NZL may have the edge here.

LANE CREW RELATIVE POSITIONS                      ELAPSED   SPLIT  
                            1500*           CREW   TIME     TIME   
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+  
  6  YUG     <YUG                            ITA  1:28.26  1:28.26
  5  NOR    <NOR                             AUS  1:28.79  1:28.79
  4  NZL    <NZL                             NOR  1:29.97  1:29.97
  3  ITA <ITA                                NZL  1:30.01  1:30.01
  2  AUS  <AUS                               YUG  1:30.26  1:30.26
  1  EGY      <EGY                           EGY  1:31.13  1:31.13
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
                            1000*
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
  6  YUG         <YUG                        ITA  2:59.58  1:31.31
  5  NOR       <NOR                          AUS  3:00.75  1:31.96
  4  NZL          <NZL                       NOR  3:03.16  1:33.19
  3  ITA <ITA                                YUG  3:04.27  1:34.01
  2  AUS   <AUS                              NZL  3:05.00  1:34.98
  1  EGY              <EGY                   EGY  3:07.13  1:36.00
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
                            500 *
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
  6  YUG              <YUG                   ITA  4:31.82  1:32.24
  5  NOR            <NOR                     AUS  4:32.64  1:31.88
  4  NZL              <NZL                   NOR  4:38.04  1:34.88
  3  ITA <ITA                                YUG  4:39.36  1:35.08
  2  AUS  <AUS                               NZL  4:39.54  1:34.54
  1  EGY                      <EG            EGY  4:44.57  1:37.43
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
                          FINISH*
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
  6  YUG                     <YUG            ITA  6:04.58  1:32.76
  5  NOR                <NOR                 AUS  6:05.02  1:32.38
  4  NZL                 <NZL                NOR  6:13.14  1:35.09
  3  ITA <ITA                                NZL  6:13.61  1:34.07
  2  AUS  <AUS                               YUG  6:16.45  1:37.08
  1  EGY                                     EGY  6:21.10  1:36.52
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+

Prediction 510

Copyright 2000. Kent Mitchell.

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