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Pre-Race Analysis and Prediction

Repechage Heat

Top 4 crews to FA final and 5th crew eliminated from competition.

Prediction

The members of the 5th place crew to be eliminated in this one will be re-racing this for the rest of their lives. With 500 meters to go, all crews could be within a length and a quarter of the leader. The USA may want to temper its race a bit in the first 1000 meters and save something for the last 30 strokes in this one.

CAN should start to close on the USA in the second 500, so USA needs to stop CAN's move there. AUS is expected to start its move on the USA in the 3rd 500 meter interval, so the USA can expect that challenge, whether or not the earlier challenge comes from CAN. GBR is also expected to start back on the USA a bit in that same 3rd 500. In the last 500, GBR has to hold off a fast closing BLR, and at the same time get by AUS or the USA, assuming CAN moves out as the following race prediction report indicates, which is based strictly on a mix of each crew's times in its heat. Stay tuned.

LANE CREW RELATIVE POSITIONS                      ELAPSED   SPLIT  
                            1500*           CREW   TIME     TIME   
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+  
  5  BLR    <BLR                             USA  1:29.04  1:29.04
  4  CAN  <CAN                               CAN  1:29.80  1:29.80
  3  AUS   <AUS                              AUS  1:30.43  1:30.43
  2  USA <USA                                GBR  1:31.27  1:31.27
  1  GBR    <GBR                             BLR  1:31.83  1:31.83
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
                            1000*
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
  5  BLR      <BLR                           USA  3:03.27  1:34.23
  4  CAN  <CAN                               CAN  3:03.80  1:34.00
  3  AUS   <AUS                              AUS  3:04.88  1:34.45
  2  USA <USA                                GBR  3:05.82  1:34.55
  1  GBR    <GBR                             BLR  3:07.42  1:35.58
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
                            500 *
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
  5  BLR      <BLR                           CAN  4:39.11  1:35.30
  4  CAN <CAN                                USA  4:39.51  1:36.24
  3  AUS   <AUS                              AUS  4:41.08  1:36.19
  2  USA <USA                                GBR  4:42.04  1:36.22
  1  GBR    <GBR                             BLR  4:43.91  1:36.48
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
                          FINISH*
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
  5  BLR       <BLR                          CAN  6:13.60  1:34.48
  4  CAN <CAN                                USA  6:17.36  1:37.85
  3  AUS     <AUS                            AUS  6:17.44  1:36.35
  2  USA     <USA                            BLR  6:19.01  1:35.10
  1  GBR        <GBR                         GBR  6:19.48  1:37.44
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+

Prediction 229

Copyright 2000. Kent Mitchell.

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