Analysis of First 1500 Meters Splits for Fastest Men's Eights
at Athens 2004 Olympic Games
August 15, 2004
The validity of comparisons of times posted by crews from separate
heats is always of questionable validity, particularly in hallacious
wind conditions, but it is done anyway. This year is no different,
when it comes to analyzing the times of the Men’s Olympic
Eights in the two preliminary heats already run in Athens. See
Race 41 and Race
42.)
In Heat 1, Australia had the fastest elapsed times of any crew
at the first 500, the 1000, and with 500 meters to go. Australia
with a comfortable lead then visibly backed off in the last 500
meters, allowing each of the trailing crews in Heat 1 to close
their gaps on Australia by the finish line. ( note the gold colors
for each of those crews in the final 500 meters on worldrowers’
race result report for Heat 1)
By contrast in Heat 2, Canada and the United States went at each
other like cats and dogs to the finish line, with the USA pulling
slightly ahead in the last few strokes of the final 500 meters.
A comparison of split times up to, but not past, the 1500 meter
mark in the heats may have more validity than using finishing
times, because Australia backed off at the end of Heat 1 and the
USA and Canada went all out against each other to the end of Heat
2. Based on a 1500 meter comparison, however, speculation may
now be running that Australia will lead with 500 to go in the
finals, and have enough left to hold off final surges by the United
States, Canada and the others.
JAMCO therefore has mixed the first 1500 meter split times for
the six crews which had the fastest times to the 1500 meter mark,
and presents the following theoretical 1500 meter race report
in the JAMCO format for graphic comparison of what these splits
might mean if Heat performances are repeated in the finals.
This theoretical report (below) shows Canada
starting a slow move back on Australia in both the second and
third 500’s, ending up virtually even with Australia with
500 to go. The report also shows Australia continuing to move
out on the USA over the first 1000 meters, with a 1.5 second lead
at that point. The USA then starts reeling Australia back in during
the third 500, reducing their deficit by 0.4 seconds to 1.1 seconds
( a third of a length ) with 500 meters to go. If the finals develop
this way, a matter of speculation to be sure, then the USA’s
comeback on Australia in the last 500 to win the gold will have
to more than double its comeback in the third 500 meter interval.
About the only conclusion having any validity at all here is
that it will be "Game On, Man" for everyone with 500
meters to go.
Analysis
of M8+
