| ROM is the clear favorite for the gold medal. Just look at the competiton histories
for the ROM rowers posted on this website. Collectively, they have appeared in 95 previus
World Championship and Olympic events. They have won a total of 59 medals in those events,
including 28 gold, 21 silver and 10 bronze. ROM is the defending Olympic Champion, and has
been the World Champion in each of the last 3 years. They have shown no mercy this year,
winning the most recent World Cup in Lucerne in July. In its opening heat here, ROM posted
the fastest time by almost 5 seconds. Only an unforseeable catastrophe could deny ROM the
Olympic Gold Medal. NED has a clear path to the silver medal, privided it takes
advantage of the apparent vulnerability of AUS, CAN and the USA in the 3rd 500 meter
interval. The race prediction bulletin below, mixing heat times, suggests a NED move to a
safe 2nd place position is probable in that interval, so AUS, CAN and USA better be ready
to stop it.
The USA , CAN and AUS are well matched down the course. In the repechage, where no crew
had to chase ROM or NED, the USA defeated both CAN and AUS, even though the margin of
victory was shrinking fast in the last 500 meters. This indicates the USA can place third
in the final, provided it does not burn out in a hopless effort to chase down ROM. Thus,
USA is projected the bronze medal winner despite the straight mix of heat times shown
below in in the race prediction bulletin indicates the USA finishing 5th. A 5th place is
what the USA must fear if it blows out early chasing ROM.
By contrast, CAN's and AUS's shot at the bronze will be improved considerably if they
match the USA's projected move on them in the 2nd 500, which both failed to do in the
repechage.
As things now stand, our predicted finish is ROM gold, NED silver, USA bronze and CAN,
AUS and BLR following.
Take a look at the color pre-play to see the projected
moves of these crews down the course.
LANE CREW RELATIVE POSITIONS ELAPSED SPLIT
1500* CREW TIME TIME
---+---+---+---+---+---+
6 AUS <AUS ROM 1:28.47 1:28.47
5 CAN <CAN USA 1:29.04 1:29.04
4 NED <NED CAN 1:29.80 1:29.80
3 ROM <ROM NED 1:29.93 1:29.93
2 USA <USA AUS 1:30.43 1:30.43
1 BLR <BLR BLR 1:31.83 1:31.83
---+---+---+---+---+---+
1000*
---+---+---+---+---+---+
6 AUS <AUS ROM 3:00.08 1:31.61
5 CAN <CAN USA 3:03.27 1:34.23
4 NED <NED CAN 3:03.80 1:34.00
3 ROM <ROM NED 3:04.03 1:34.10
2 USA <USA AUS 3:04.88 1:34.45
1 BLR <BLR BLR 3:07.42 1:35.58
---+---+---+---+---+---+
500 *
---+---+---+---+---+---+
6 AUS <AUS ROM 4:33.14 1:33.05
5 CAN <CAN NED 4:37.82 1:33.78
4 NED <NED CAN 4:39.11 1:35.30
3 ROM <ROM USA 4:39.51 1:36.24
2 USA <USA AUS 4:41.08 1:36.19
1 BLR <BLR BLR 4:43.91 1:36.48
---+---+---+---+---+---+
FINISH*
---+---+---+---+---+---+
6 AUS <AUS ROM 6:06.66 1:33.51
5 CAN <CAN NED 6:11.29 1:33.47
4 NED <NED CAN 6:13.60 1:34.48
3 ROM <ROM USA 6:17.36 1:37.85
2 USA <USA AUS 6:17.44 1:36.35
1 BLR <BLR BLR 6:19.01 1:35.10
---+---+---+---+---+---+
|
