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Women's Eight (W8+)

Final A


JAMCO Pre-Play

ROM is the clear favorite for the gold medal. Just look at the competiton histories for the ROM rowers posted on this website. Collectively, they have appeared in 95 previus World Championship and Olympic events. They have won a total of 59 medals in those events, including 28 gold, 21 silver and 10 bronze. ROM is the defending Olympic Champion, and has been the World Champion in each of the last 3 years. They have shown no mercy this year, winning the most recent World Cup in Lucerne in July. In its opening heat here, ROM posted the fastest time by almost 5 seconds. Only an unforseeable catastrophe could deny ROM the Olympic Gold Medal.

NED has a clear path to the silver medal, privided it takes advantage of the apparent vulnerability of AUS, CAN and the USA in the 3rd 500 meter interval. The race prediction bulletin below, mixing heat times, suggests a NED move to a safe 2nd place position is probable in that interval, so AUS, CAN and USA better be ready to stop it.

The USA , CAN and AUS are well matched down the course. In the repechage, where no crew had to chase ROM or NED, the USA defeated both CAN and AUS, even though the margin of victory was shrinking fast in the last 500 meters. This indicates the USA can place third in the final, provided it does not burn out in a hopless effort to chase down ROM. Thus, USA is projected the bronze medal winner despite the straight mix of heat times shown below in in the race prediction bulletin indicates the USA finishing 5th. A 5th place is what the USA must fear if it blows out early chasing ROM.

By contrast, CAN's and AUS's shot at the bronze will be improved considerably if they match the USA's projected move on them in the 2nd 500, which both failed to do in the repechage.

As things now stand, our predicted finish is ROM gold, NED silver, USA bronze and CAN, AUS and BLR following.

Take a look at the color pre-play to see the projected moves of these crews down the course.

                            1500*           CREW   TIME     TIME   
  6  AUS   <AUS                              ROM  1:28.47  1:28.47
  5  CAN   <CAN                              USA  1:29.04  1:29.04
  4  NED   <NED                              CAN  1:29.80  1:29.80
  3  ROM <ROM                                NED  1:29.93  1:29.93
  2  USA  <USA                               AUS  1:30.43  1:30.43
  1  BLR     <BLR                            BLR  1:31.83  1:31.83
  6  AUS       <AUS                          ROM  3:00.08  1:31.61
  5  CAN     <CAN                            USA  3:03.27  1:34.23
  4  NED      <NED                           CAN  3:03.80  1:34.00
  3  ROM <ROM                                NED  3:04.03  1:34.10
  2  USA     <USA                            AUS  3:04.88  1:34.45
  1  BLR         <BLR                        BLR  3:07.42  1:35.58
                            500 *
  6  AUS          <AUS                       ROM  4:33.14  1:33.05
  5  CAN        <CAN                         NED  4:37.82  1:33.78
  4  NED      <NED                           CAN  4:39.11  1:35.30
  3  ROM <ROM                                USA  4:39.51  1:36.24
  2  USA        <USA                         AUS  4:41.08  1:36.19
  1  BLR             <BLR                    BLR  4:43.91  1:36.48
  6  AUS             <AUS                    ROM  6:06.66  1:33.51
  5  CAN         <CAN                        NED  6:11.29  1:33.47
  4  NED      <NED                           CAN  6:13.60  1:34.48
  3  ROM <ROM                                USA  6:17.36  1:37.85
  2  USA             <USA                    AUS  6:17.44  1:36.35
  1  BLR               <BLR                  BLR  6:19.01  1:35.10

JAMCO Pre-Play

Prediction 613

Copyright 2000. Kent Mitchell.

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